Market Structure and Comparison of Mainstream Platforms
Polymarket
Decentralized
Built on Polygon, open event creation
High transparency, censorship resistance
Fragmented liquidity, compliance risk
Kalshi
Centralized & compliant
CFTC-licensed event contract exchange
Legal certainty, institutional capital inflow
Restricted by regional regulations
Augur
Decentralized
Native Ethereum smart contract system
Early innovator, robust governance
Complex UX, high gas costs
Robinhood Markets
Integrated
Retail-friendly interface
Large user base
Lacks decentralization and AI support
The market structure is gradually forming a pattern of “dual centers + innovation belt”:
Centralized markets emphasize compliance and institutional liquidity;
Decentralized markets emphasize openness and censorship resistance;
Emerging AI-driven platforms (such as Noise, Trepa) aim to penetrate through intelligent market making and signal analysis.
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