Industry Development Trends

The essence of prediction markets is to convert the uncertainty of future events into price signals, thereby realizing the market-based pricing of information. With the convergence of blockchain and AI, this mechanism is experiencing unprecedented technological and commercial breakthroughs.

• Accelerated Growth: The industry size reached approximately USD 1.4 billion in 2024 and is projected to grow to nearly USD 100 billion by 2035.

• Mainstream Penetration: Institutional investors and media are beginning to view prediction markets as a financialized channel for public opinion and probability.

• Platform Differentiation: Kalshi (compliance-oriented) and Polymarket (decentralized) form a dual-core structure, while older protocols such as Augur are updating their mechanisms to adapt to new standards.

Prediction markets are evolving from speculative entertainment into infrastructure for information flow and risk hedging, serving as key tools for policy forecasting, sports hedging, and even AI model validation.